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Bird Diversity under Climate Change

Introduction

The biological effects of climate change are extensive, serious and uncertain.

Man-made climate change is considered a major threat to global biodiversity and could drive thousands of species to extinction over the next 100 years.

Climate change is a particularly pernicious threat, and even within protected areas it may be difficult to protect species from its effects.

In addition, climate change may have important interactions with other anthropogenic influences.

In view of this, understanding species’ response to modern climate change is one of the most pressing issues facing biology, ecology, and more today.

Shared Socioeconomic Paths (SSPs)

The scenario setting of shared social and economic path is to obtain specific social and economic development scenario according to the current national and regional actual situation and development planning. The quantitative elements of SSP include population, GDP and other indicators, while the qualitative elements include the description of global development, which mainly covers seven aspects: population and human resources, economic development, lifestyle, human development, environment and natural resources, policies and institutions, and technological development. At the IPCC AR5 Conference in 2012, five basic types of SSPs (SSP1-SSP5) were identified as: sustainable development path SSP1, intermediate path SSP2, regional competition path SSP3, unbalanced path SSP4 and traditional fossil fuel-dominated path SSP5.

Methods

Maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) is a robust species modeling tool.

(i) “climate envelope” models are constructed using current best practices in niche modelling, (ii) predicting changes in species ranges in response to climate change, and (iii) making macroecological inferences about the impact of habitat loss on extinction rates. MaxEnt is widely recognized as one of the best-performing non-integrated approaches to niche modeling and is the most widely used method for analyzing existence-only data in the literature to date.

Conclusions

Spatio-temporal pattern
At present, the suitable habitats for seabirds are basically distributed in the west coast of Europe, east and west coast of North America and some other coastal areas. Over time, its suitable habitat will spread inland from the coastline.

Different development scenarios
During the process from SSP126 to SSP585, the suitable habitat area of seabirds in the same period was larger and could cover almost all the five continents.

The suitable habitat of birds varies greatly under different development scenarios.
Compared with the low-carbon development scenario, the suitable habitat of birds in the extensive development scenario has a greater degree of change, the spread area is larger, and the ecological niche changes, thus leading to large-scale migration, affecting other species and even species colonization, leading to extinction, co-extinction and other phenomena, damaging biodiversity and the stability of the global ecosystem.

Different birds respond differently to climate change.
The suitable habitat changes of different birds under different development scenarios were compared. The land birds were most affected by temperature, and they showed northward diffusion on a large scale, and even showed northward migration but not diffusion during 2081-2100. Both seabirds and waterbirds showed a trend of inland dispersal from coastal zone, and the dispersal degree of suitable habitat of seabirds was larger than that of seabirds in the same period.

References

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